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Last week Barack Obama, the first-term senator from the Land
of Lincoln, became the first African-American to claim the
nomination of a major political party, tossing all of those
early assumptions out the window.
Obama, whose rise to prominence has been as sudden as it has
been improbable, earned the right to face presumptive
Republican nominee Senator John McCain of Arizona when he
closed out the most grueling primary season ever with an
insurmountable lead in both pledged and super delegates.
Last Saturday, Clinton conceded the match, thanked her
almost 18 million supporters and promised to do all in her
power to work with Obama and help him win the presidency in
November.
This primary season was like no other. The candidates
competed, as never before, in all 50 states, the District of
Columbia, Guam, American Samoa, Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico, before drawing a concession from Clinton at week’s
end. Even then, many of her supporters urged to her carry
the fight onward in order to become the first female nominee
for the presidency of a major political party.
In the end, the Clinton campaign was left to ponder how they
had managed to let the prize slip from their grasp, a prize
that seemed to be theirs for the taking just a few short
months ago, just a few days before the inaugural Iowa
caucuses.
The Clinton’s campaign decision to downplay their effort in
the all-important caucus battles, to portray their candidate
as entitled, to rely on party machinery rather than grass
roots effort, to fail to realize the fund-raising
capabilities of the Internet and to overlook the need for a
strategy that would carry the fight past Super Tuesday
doomed their candidate almost from the beginning when Obama
shocked the world and scored a huge win in Iowa.
Clinton rebounded to win New Hampshire, but by then the die
was cast. African-American voters, who had viewed Obama’s
chances of victory with a healthy skepticism, reacted to the
victory in almost all-white Iowa by climbing aboard the
bandwagon. By the time he reached South Carolina and its
large percentage of black voters, Obama could rely on huge
turnouts in urban areas and as much as 90 percent of the
African-American vote.
Obama more than held his own on Super Tuesday, losing the
big states but piling up votes and delegates in smaller
ones. He won 13 of 22 states and then went on to win state
after state in the following weeks. By the time that voters
in the big states of Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania had their
say, the contest was just about out of reach for Clinton.
Now what?
As we saw on Tuesday and in the following days, there will
be pressure on Obama to name Clinton to the ticket. She has
made it clear that she would accept.
Such a move assures her supporters that she would have a
place at the table and would be the “inevitable” – once more
– nominee in 2016. But at what price for Obama?
Does he want Clinton looking over his should in the West
Wing? Does he want her husband looking over both of their
shoulders? Can he even trust former President Bill Clinton
on the campaign trail with his habit of shooting from the
hip and losing his composure?
Obama has formed a three-person committee to vet vice
presidential candidates. Mentioned prominently so far are
former Senator and presidential candidate John Edwards, Govs
Ted Strickland of Ohi, Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania, Kathleen
Sebelius of Kansas, Bill Richardson of New Mexico and Tim
Kaine of Virginia. Senators Joe Biden of Delaware, Jim Webb
of Virginia and Chris Dodd of Connecticut have also been
mentioned, particularly for their foreign policy experience.
Perhaps the most intriguing name on the list of
possibilities is former Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia who,
along with Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater in the 1980’s,
was instrumental in re-organizing the military. Nunn might
also bring the State of Georgia into play.
As his team makes lists and collects opinions, Obama is back
on the campaign trail focusing on the economy and promising
to unveil a detailed long-term economic plan next week.
McCain, for his part, has found himself a bit back on his
heels. He tried to steal the Democrat’s thunder on election
night only to give a speech that caused one Republican Party
strategist to compare it to an AARP bingo game. Reading off
a teleprompter is apparently not the GOP nominee’s strength.
With gas prices zooming gout of sight, the stock exchange
plummeting and most Americans starting to believe that a
recession is here for real, McCain will have a difficult
time turning his message to foreign policy and Iraq, the
subject he believes would be his alone. The economy,
according to his own words, is not something he feels
confident in discussing.
Nevertheless, it’s a hunt for electoral votes and the map is
a toss-up at this stage. Obama needs to hold on to
everything Senator John Kerry got in 2004 when he won 252
electoral votes and still find another 18 to win the top
prize. That means turning Ohio or Florida around while
maintaining the edge in Michigan, Pennsylvania and West
Virginia. Or, Obama can try to turn New Mexico, Nevada and
Colorado to his advantage.
He has five months to secure victory and bring about the
most momentous presidential victory of this nation’s
history. |
