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With the
2016 presidential electoral campaigns hitting peak stride,
it could be a fatal political mistake to overlook Toledo’s
mayoral election, which will take place in 2017. Contenders
are already lining up to challenge incumbent Paula
Hicks-Hudson, Toledo’s third African American mayor and the
city’s only black woman chief executive.
Unlike in
her victory to complete the final two years of the late D.
Michael Collins’ unfulfilled term, should Mayor Hicks-Hudson
survive a September 2017 primary, she would compete head to
head rather than the seven person “sleigh race” in which she
prevailed in 2015.
The
relevant question for a proud African-American community
looking for her historic achievement to be more substantive
than symbolic is: Can she win?
Since
Toledo adopted the strong mayor form of government, only
once has it reelected an incumbent mayor and in that sole
instance it took a blooming Bill Clinton economy in 1997 and
former mayor “Carty Finkbeiner running against an unknown
tombstone salesman to produce a photo finish victory by a
mere 700 votes,” according to a political insider.
While a
Hicks-Hudson victory is not impossible, there are several
challenges which make the feat extremely difficult.
With
Sherrod Brown likely running for reelection to the U.S.
Senate and an open race for Ohio Governor also taking place
in 2018, the Ohio Democratic Party is not likely to provide
Hicks-Hudson with the financial and field support she
received in the past which provided her with the competitive
advantage needed to eclipse a crowded 2015 field of rivals.
However,
it is the continuing structural decline in the city’s
economic vitality passed down from previous administrations
that may provide the most serious threat to undermine the
reelection efforts of the city’s first African-American
female mayor.
The
voters will likely be evaluating Hicks-Hudson on her
capability to manage an aging city with an aging population
and a declining tax base and where the State of Ohio has
reduced funding earmarked for Toledo by $83 million dollars
over the past seven years.
These
issues are, without a doubt, misfortunes. Yet, to be fair,
missteps also have to be acknowledged.
The mayor
has yet to parlay her previous victory into a relevant brand
or message that will set her apart from any potential
challengers in 2017. Although ProMedica’s high profile
relocation downtown is in motion, the Southwyck land deal is
complete and there is possibly a new Metro Park on the
horizon, these were all begun by her predecessors. There
have not been any major accomplishments that she can solely
hang her hat on.
Rebranding is mandatory if the mayor is to ward off
competitors who see her vulnerabilities, as one political
insider says, as being “in charge of a dysfunctional city
and a government that doesn’t work: the levy that couldn’t
pass, the potholes that can’t get filled, putting a hiring
freeze on your employees and yet giving people like Bob
Reinbolt big raises.”
The
newspaper headlines that highlight city/county fights or say
things like “City defaults on payment” or “City refuses to
pay for criminal justice costs” are not helpful either.
From a
social perspective, there is also an urgent need to keep the
racial peace and improve police/community relations at a
time when the ranks of black police officers and
firefighters are at their lowest levels in several decades
due to the retirement of cohorts hired under a federal court
mandate originating in 1984.
Although
Police Chief George Kral is very well respected, the mayor
has appeared to de-emphasize race at a time when mistrust of
police by communities of color exists.
“I
actually can’t believe that former chief Derrick Diggs was
sort of driven out of town the way he was and how quickly he
was embraced by a Florida community that I don’t even know
if he ever stepped foot in before he took the job, that
speaks poorly of us. And I know there were personalities
and politics involved, and I have nothing against Kral, but
especially in this time in which we live, not even predating
Black Lives Matter, but everything, it really…your police
chief in an urban city is just a crucial person in terms of
building trust and we had someone in Diggs who I think was
the right kind of person to be a part of that,” another
political insider lamented.
Yet there
are opportunities for success should Hicks-Hudson not change
her mind and instead, according to rumors, seek judgeship
for the Toledo Housing and Environmental Court (current
Judge C. Allen McConnell will soon reach mandatory
retirement age and some powerful Democrats are trying to
convince Hicks-Hudson to become his replacement).
One
opportunity is the 0.75 percent income tax renewal that will
appear on the November 2016 ballot. Should the measure pass
it will allow some financial flexibility for the city. The
scary fact is that if it fails, Toledo could possibly go
bankrupt leading to massive layoffs of safety forces and
fiscal oversight.
Also,
regional water is a major public policy opportunity as well
as threat that must be addressed. A recent study has
indicated that the suburbs could, for a very modest
investment, develop their own new EPA approved water plant.
As a result, the suburban cities would have administrative
control over their own water and no longer need to purchase
it from Toledo. Should the suburban communities leave the
current arrangement for one that has definite and direct
financial benefit to them, the basic water rates for Toledo
residents will increase 300 percent, a tremendous burden
upon Toledo seniors, poor and people of color. Although the
power dynamic has shifted from Toledo to the suburbs, our
neighbors have expressed an interest in collaborating with
Toledo should they be treated like investors rather than
customers.
This is
the tough social and economic landscape faced by our first
African-American woman mayor. If she is to win reelection,
there are multiple influences that make her political
struggle an uphill journey.
Hicks-Hudson must not only be an astute manager, she must
also lead.
Contact Rev. Donald Perryman, D.Min, at
drdlperryman@centerofhopebaptist.org
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