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Former Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton, running a conventional presidential
campaign, seems to have everything in her favor. She has a
superior advantage in campaign financial assets, grass roots
ground game resources and is the beneficiary of changing
demographics which has seen representation of minority
voters rise to approximately one third of the total
electorate from a meager 10 percent in the recent past. She
also has a long history of public service and philanthropy
focused on eliminating poverty and inequality.
The “other candidate,” in
contrast, is running a nontraditional political campaign and
has made comments that portray him as “inept, inexperienced
and offensive.” The Republican Party nominee has publicly
insulted our military and praised Russian leader Vladimir
Putin. He is “someone who has called the Pope a disgrace,
who says don’t vote for Ted Cruz because his wife is too
ugly, and that POWs aren’t heroes because they’ve been
captured,” said one Democratic policymaker.
The” other candidate” has
also utilized racist messaging by insulting a
Mexican-American judge and stereotyped financially-deprived,
unemployed and under-educated African Americans as the
“truest representation of black people” or norm, although a
large portion of nonblack people have similar issues with
poverty, unemployment, schooling and criminality (“What the
hell do you have to lose?”).
Why, then, are the public
opinion polls showing an extremely tight contest with the
2016 presidential election less than two months away?
The closeness of the race can
possibly be attributed to the natural ebb and flow following
the conclusion of the Republican and Democratic Party
conventions, the daily news cycle where one candidate has a
good week or the other stumbles, or that a back-to-school,
post-summer, post-Olympics public has now begun to place a
hyper focus on the election.
Another factor in the
contested political fight is the post fact-check society in
which we currently live. With its genesis in the Nixon
period and development in the womb of the George W. Bush and
Sarah Palin eras, the general feeling of “facts don’t
matter” seems to have reached full maturity during the Trump
presidential campaign. This has allowed conservatives to
appeal to the emotions of Trump’s “disaffected Archie Bunker
supporters” by making negative and divisive assertions
“without a shred of evidence to back them up.”
At the same time, protests
against the policing crisis in black communities, economic
exploitation of the working class, and the excesses of Wall
Street go unaddressed by so-called progressives and the
protesters are labeled as unpatriotic.
Will Clinton or “the other
candidate” prevail?
The outcome of the election
is likely to be greatly influenced by the following major
factors.
1.
Mathematics
The demographics of our
country have changed in a way that a candidate running for
national office cannot win with a hostile message to a
plurality of growing minority groups. Recently nearly half
of Trump’s Hispanic advisory council resigned on the spot
following remarks and a policy position they deemed
offensive. Rather than adopting policies to adapt to a new
diverse America, Republicans instead have resorted to
manipulation of the election system through strict voter ID
laws. Democratic policies, while not what they should or can
be, are more welcoming and appealing to minority voters
which make up a much more sizable portion of the electorate
than in previous elections.
2.
Turnout
Republicans are unlikely to
implement souls-to-the-polls efforts or extensive
knock-on-doors strategies to drag voters out to the polls.
However, Secretary Clinton has invested tremendous resources
in grass roots organizing and field operations. As a result,
expect anywhere from a 1 1/2 to 2 ½ point increase in her
margin that is not currently reflected in the polls but will
show up in Election Day results.
In addition, look for the
tightening poll numbers to serve as a get out the vote
motivator to skeptical young black voters and dispirited
Bernie supporters. They may currently feel that the two
candidates do not provide them with a credible choice. Yet,
these voters are increasingly concluding that the failure to
choose either of the two is a choice itself, one that can
have disastrous consequences for their future.
3.
The Debates
Secretary Clinton is
extremely well qualified and knowledgeable but can sometimes
be viewed as a policy wonk that is hard to connect with
emotionally. The “other candidate” often appears to be out
of his element, spectacularly unqualified and often
unprepared. Clinton’s risk is the low expectations the
public has for the “other candidate.” The low bar could
allow his surrogates to win the media spin war by framing
his debate performance as exceptional based upon nothing
more than he kept his poise despite not having an
understanding of policy concepts or of global and domestic
realities.
4.
An Unforeseen Scandal
Clinton has a career of
helping others but has been one of the most attacked and
investigated persons in history. The media has been accused
of making false equivalencies between Clinton’s email or
foundation issues and the “other candidate’s” possible pay
for play accusations surrounding his “Real Estate”
University.
Although WikiLeaks lurks in
the background, it is likely that supporters for both
candidates are entrenched and cannot be swayed. Those who
haven’t yet been turned off by the “other candidate” and
those that hate Hillary now, are not likely to change their
opinion in the future.
Again, who wins in November?
Who would have ever thought
the “other candidate” would rise to where he is. He went
from being “a joke of a candidate” to become the Republican
Party nominee by insulting his opponents and re-writing the
campaign rulebook. Now he is in a dead heat with Hillary
Clinton for the presidency of the United States.
Therefore, one thing that
this election year has taught me is that maybe we shouldn’t
make predictions because this election has been so
unpredictable.
Contact Rev. Donald Perryman, D.Min, at
drdlperryman@centerofhopebaptist.org
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